20+ Year Treasury Bond vs the S&P 500 (TLT): is it outperforming?
As of 12 October 2026, 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) is trailing the S&P 500, over the past month and over the longer run. TLT trails the S&P 500 by 5.2 points over one month and ranks #67 of 115 groups Zensei tracks.
Where 20+ year treasury bond stands now
As of 12 October 2026, 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ranks #67 of the 115 groups Zensei tracks by one-month return against the S&P 500. It is out of favor: it trails the S&P 500 on both rotation windows — 5.2 points behind over the past month and 5.0 points behind over the longer, time-shifted window. That is the Underperformers quadrant.
On the shorter tape, TLT's momentum is weakening: the intraday trend that carried the move is cooling across the shorter windows. TLT's relative-strength line has broken below its long-term average — the long-term outperformance trend is no longer intact. Both signals point the same direction here: the market is not rewarding this group on either horizon.
The thing to watch from here is the one-month spread: underperformers only become interesting when the recent window turns positive first — until then, the market is voting elsewhere.
TLT vs SPY: head-to-head returns
Over the week to 12 October 2026, TLT rose 1.2% while the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. TLT and SPY (the S&P 500) over every window Zensei tracks. The spread is the difference: positive means TLT won that window.
Prices as of · computed from daily adjusted closes · how we measure
20+ Year Treasury Bond on the rotation map, against the 11 broad S&P 500 sectors. Vertical: 1-month spread vs the S&P 500. Horizontal: the longer, time-shifted window.
20+ Year Treasury Bond vs the market — common questions
Is 20+ year treasury bond outperforming the S&P 500?
No. As of 12 October 2026, TLT trails the S&P 500 by 5.2 points over the past month.
Is it a good time to invest in 20+ year treasury bond?
Zensei does not give investment advice, but it measures the trend. As of 12 October 2026, 20+ year treasury bond is behind the S&P 500 on both the recent and the longer window. The rotation map and the read on this page show whether that trend is building or fading.
What is TLT?
TLT is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. Zensei uses it to measure 20+ year treasury bond against the S&P 500 (SPY).
What quadrant is 20+ year treasury bond in right now?
As of 12 October 2026, 20+ year treasury bond is in the Underperformers quadrant — trailing the S&P 500 on both windows. The Zensei methodology page explains the quadrants.
Recent changes
- ·First tracked: trailing the market
Related sectors
Track 20+ year treasury bond against the whole market
Zensei Edge maps 100+ sectors and themes against the S&P 500 — with the stocks inside each one, rotation history and alerts when leadership changes hands.