Oil vs the S&P 500 (DBO): is it outperforming?
As of 12 October 2026, Oil (DBO) is losing ground: still ahead of the S&P 500 over the longer run, but behind over the past month. DBO trails the S&P 500 by 4.6 points over one month and ranks #57 of 115 groups Zensei tracks.
Where oil stands now
As of 12 October 2026, Oil (DBO) ranks #57 of the 115 groups Zensei tracks by one-month return against the S&P 500. It is losing its lead. It built a 26.7-point advantage over the S&P 500 across the longer, time-shifted window, but over the past month it has slipped 4.6 points behind the market — the Cooling quadrant of the rotation map.
On the shorter tape, DBO's momentum is weakening: the intraday trend that carried the move is cooling across the shorter windows. DBO's relative-strength line — its price ratio against the S&P 500 — is trading above its moving averages, the healthiest configuration we track. The longer trend remains healthier than the recent tape suggests — the kind of divergence worth rechecking in a week.
The exposure comes via Invesco DB Oil Fund, whose 2 tracked holdings are led by Invesco Shrt-Trm Inv Gov&agcy Instl and Invesco Short Term Treasury ETF. The thing to watch from here is whether this is a pause or a handoff: cooling groups sometimes reset and reclaim leadership, but a deepening one-month deficit usually means rotation has moved on.
DBO vs SPY: head-to-head returns
Over the week to 12 October 2026, DBO rose 4.8% while the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. DBO and SPY (the S&P 500) over every window Zensei tracks. The spread is the difference: positive means DBO won that window.
Prices as of · computed from daily adjusted closes · how we measure
Oil on the rotation map, against the 11 broad S&P 500 sectors. Vertical: 1-month spread vs the S&P 500. Horizontal: the longer, time-shifted window.
What's inside DBO
| # | Holding | Weight | 1M | 3M | vs fund 1M | Momentum | RS health |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AGPXXInvesco Shrt-Trm Inv Gov&agcy Instl | 40.6% | — | — | No price data | ||
| 2 | TBLLInvesco Short Term Treasury ETF | 10.8% | +0.3% | +0.9% | −1.1 pts | Weak | Broken |
Oil vs the market — common questions
Is oil outperforming the S&P 500?
No. As of 12 October 2026, DBO trails the S&P 500 by 4.6 points over the past month.
Is it a good time to invest in oil?
Zensei does not give investment advice, but it measures the trend. As of 12 October 2026, oil is ahead of the S&P 500 over the longer window but behind over the past month, a fading lead. The rotation map and the read on this page show whether that trend is building or fading.
What is DBO?
DBO is Invesco DB Oil Fund. Zensei uses it to measure oil against the S&P 500 (SPY).
What does DBO hold?
As of 12 October 2026, the largest of the 2 positions Zensei tracks in DBO are Invesco Shrt-Trm Inv Gov&agcy Instl, Invesco Short Term Treasury ETF. Each position measured against the fund, with momentum and relative strength, is part of Zensei Premium.
What quadrant is oil in right now?
As of 12 October 2026, oil is in the Cooling quadrant — still ahead over the longer window, but behind the market over the past month. The Zensei methodology page explains the quadrants.
Recent changes
- ·Among the strongest → losing ground
- ·Beating the market → among the strongest
- ·First tracked: beating the market
Related sectors
Track oil against the whole market
Zensei Edge maps 100+ sectors and themes against the S&P 500 — with the stocks inside each one, rotation history and alerts when leadership changes hands.